Will Santa be arriving by boat in the future?

This time last year we were pondering a sobering thought then striking commentators around the world. What will happen to Santa if the polar ice caps melt? We have pulled it out of the library for you again and added a link to an update from WWF about climate change in 2005.

New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly

It could be argued that Santa will work out what to do. This is the incredible character who finds his way to into children’s homes all over the world without ever being discovered. BUT in the absence of those magical abilities we could be up against it – this is serious business.

A recent report claims that the Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previously known, at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it warmer still. The unprecedented four-year scientific study of the region was conducted by an international team of 300 scientists.

LEFT Observed Sea Ice 1979. At least half of the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 7 to 13°F (4-7°C) by 2100. Image permission and courtesy of P.Grabhorn, ACIA, Map. Copyright NASA.

RIGHT Observed Sea Ice 2003 These changes will have major global impacts, such as contributing to global sea-level rise and intensifying global warming, according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). Image permission and courtesy of P. Grabhorn, ACIA, Map. Copyright NASA.

The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council, a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of eight nations, including the United States, and six Indigenous Peoples organizations, and the International Arctic Science Committee, an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science.

The assessment’s projections are based on a moderate estimate of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Robert Corell, chair of the ACIA said:

“The impacts of global warming are affecting people now in the Arctic. The
Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. The impacts of climate change on the region and the globe are projected to increase substantially in the years to come.”

Jennifer Morgan, Director of WWF’s global Climate Change Campaign said:

“The big melt has begun. Industrialised countries are carrying out an uncontrolled experiment to study the effects of climate change and the Arctic is their first guinea pig. This is unethical and wrong. They must cut emissions of CO2 now.”

WWF says it welcomes the report, but highlights the hypocrisy of those governments which sponsored it because they have failed to cut emissions of carbon dioxide. The eight Arctic countries emit more than 30 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions.

They highlight these key findings in the report:

• Human-induced changes in arctic climate are among the largest on earth. Warming in the Arctic will be around two or three times greater than the rest of the world.

RIGHT ‘Polar bears’ (Ursus maritimus) threatened by climate change. © WWF-Canon / Kevin Schafer.

• Polar bears could become extinct by the end of this century. They are very unlikely to survive as a species if there is an almost complete loss of summer sea ice cover, which is projected to occur before the end of this century by some climate models.

• Some arctic fisheries will disappear

• New health hazards for both animals and humans are set to appear as the climate warms.

• A warmer climate is likely to see more forest fires and storm damage to coastal communities in the Arctic.

• Glaciers, sea ice and tundra will melt, contributing to global sea level rise.

According to the report, sea levels could rise by nearly one meter by the end of the century. A warmer Arctic will contribute up to 15 per cent of this rise. Today, there are 17 million people living less than one meter above sea level in Bangladesh, while places like Florida and Louisiana in the US, Bangkok, Calcutta, Dhaka and Manila are also are risk from sea level rise.

LEFT Greenland Melt 1992 Reproduced with kind permission of P. Grabhorn. Copyright ACIA, Map, Clifford Grabhorn

RIGHT Greenland Melt 2002 Reproduced with kind permission of P. Grabhorn. Copyright ACIA, Map, Clifford Grabhorn

The area of the Greenland Ice Sheet that experiences some melting has increased by about 16 per cent from 1979 to 2002. The area of melting in 2002 broke all previous records. Global warming could eventually lead to a complete melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and a resulting sea-level rise globally of seven meters although this will take several hundred years.

A melting Arctic will also accelerate the rate of global climate change. As arctic snow and ice melt, the ability of the Arctic to reflect heat back to space is reduced, accelerating the overall rate of global warming.

A warmer Arctic could possibly halt the Gulf Stream, which brings warmer water and weather to north-western Europe.

Samantha Smith, Director of WWF’s International Arctic Programme said:

“Polar bears are walking on thin ice. If we can secure their future by cutting carbon dioxide emissions, we can secure the future of thousands of other species around the world.”

Click the report cover on the right, to download the Full Report, available in sections

For further information about Climate Change or The Arctic Programme visit www.panda.org

grownupgreen would like to thank Folke Wulf, Manager, WWF-Canon Photo Database for permission to use ‘Polar bears’ (Ursus maritimus) threatened by climate change. © WWF-Canon / Kevin Schafer. Also Paul Grabhorn for permission to use images from the ACIA, Map website.

2005 Update Climate Change – 2005 a record-breaking year

grownupgreen, ACIA and WWF - 16/12/05

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